This gives you an idea of the scales involved in the above probabilities. A hold'em table that is open 24 hours a day every day and averages 30 hands an hour generates more than 21,000 hands a month. In rough terms this is saying the probability of four-of-a-kind or better being beaten is 1-in-a-100,000 the probability of aces-full-of-kings or better being beaten is 1 in 69,000 and the probability of aces-full-of-10s or better being beaten is 1 in 21,000. 00001452, and when any four-of-a-kind must be beaten is. 00004803, when aces-full-of-kings must be beaten is.

The probability of a bad beat qualifying semi-deal when aces-full-of-10s must be beaten is. Also factor in that some of the entrants won't show for the drawing and it's fairly early in the NFL season so there won't be as many entries yet. I'm hoping to get an idea how frequently these bad beat jackpots hit to decide if it's worth leaving work early and making the hour drive to Commerce on Mondays. Apparently it usually gets chopped and each person takes $5500 in cash. The four people selected each choose a key with only one that starts the car to win it. If you're not selected, your name is entered for next week's drawing and so on. Names are drawn at 5pm, 7pm, 9pm, and 11pm but you have to be at Commerce or they pick another name. This also automatically entered us in their drawing where they give away a Honda Accord every Monday night. The bad beat received about $3100, winning hand just over $1000, and the rest of us got $150. I was playing the 1-2 NL ($40 buy-in) last night and our table hit the 'bad beat jackpot' - quad aces over aces full of jacks.

Commerce casino badbeat jackpot